Union Budget 2024: Disappointing Measures for Economic Challenges

In her first budget presentation following the general elections, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman outlined several significant measures in the Union Budget 2024. This year's budget, marking Sitharaman’s seventh consecutive budget, aimed to address various sectors and demographics with a mix of tax reforms, infrastructure investments, and employment generation schemes.

Key Allocations and Reforms

  1. Employment Generation: The budget allocated a substantial ₹2 lakh crore over the next five years for employment generation schemes. This initiative seeks to create job opportunities and alleviate unemployment concerns, which have been a pressing issue in recent times.
  2. Tax Reforms: Significant changes were introduced in tax policies:
    • Abolition of Angel Tax: The controversial 'angel tax' on startup investments was removed, simplifying the investment process and potentially boosting the startup ecosystem.
    • Customs Duty Adjustments: Customs duties on mobile phones and gold were reduced, while the increase in securities transaction tax (STT) on futures and options led to a temporary decline in stock markets.
    • Capital Gains Tax: The budget proposed simplification in capital gains tax, with long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax rate reduced to 12.5%, aiming to encourage investment in markets.
  3. Infrastructure Investments:
    • Bihar: ₹60,000 crore was allocated for infrastructure projects, including expressways, power plants, heritage corridors, and new airports. This move is expected to bolster development in Bihar ahead of the upcoming assembly elections.
    • Andhra Pradesh: The state received ₹15,000 crore in financial aid, focusing on infrastructure and the Polavaram project, with an emphasis on economic development and state capital needs.
  4. Middle-Class Relief: The standard deduction was increased by 50% to ₹75,000. Tax slabs were also adjusted for those opting for the new income tax regime, providing some relief to the middle class.
  5. Departmental Allocations:
    • Drinking Water and Sanitation: The allocation for the Department of Drinking Water and Sanitation saw a marginal increase of 0.5%, with a significant portion directed towards the Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) to ensure functional tap connections in rural households.
    • Defence: The defence sector received ₹6.21 lakh crore, a notable increase from the previous year’s allocation, with a focus on capital outlay and domestic procurement to enhance defense capabilities.
  6. Goods and Services:
    • Costlier Goods: Customs duties were increased on several items, including telecom equipment, plastic goods, and ammonium nitrate.
    • Cheaper Goods: Duties were reduced on essential items such as cancer medicines, mobile phones, precious metals, and fish feed.

Political and Public Reactions

The budget received mixed reactions from various political parties and stakeholders:

  1. Opposition Criticisms:
    • Left Parties: Criticized the budget for failing to address unemployment and inflation, accusing it of concealing government shortcomings. CPI(M) General Secretary Sitaram Yechury termed it a "contractionary" budget that does not address the pressing economic issues.
    • Congress Leaders: Rahul Gandhi labeled the budget as a "Kursi Bachao Budget," suggesting it prioritizes political survival over genuine welfare. Mallikarjun Kharge, Congress President, called it a "copycat" budget aimed at protecting the Modi government rather than promoting national progress.
  2. State Leaders:
    • West Bengal: Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee criticized the budget as "directionless" and "anti-people," highlighting that it ignored the specific needs of West Bengal.
    • Kerala: Finance Minister K N Balagopal denounced the budget as a "political exercise," arguing it fails to address Kerala's needs and undermines cooperative federalism.
  3. Industry Reactions:
    • Startups and Venture Capital: The removal of angel tax was welcomed by venture capitalists, who see it as a step towards simplifying investments in startups and enhancing the sector’s growth.
    • MSMEs: The budget’s focus on credit guarantee schemes and Mudra loans was seen as a positive development for the MSME sector, fostering growth and innovation.
  4. Public Services:
    • Civil Aviation: The budget allocated ₹2,357 crore to the Civil Aviation Ministry, a decrease from the previous year’s budget, with specific funds set aside for regional connectivity and infrastructure development.
    • Disability Affairs: The department received a modest increase in its budget, with a significant portion dedicated to the National Program for the Welfare of Persons with Disabilities.

Summary

The Union Budget 2024 aimed to address a broad range of economic, social, and infrastructural needs, with a significant focus on job creation, tax reforms, and regional development. While the budget’s measures were designed to stimulate economic growth and provide relief to various sectors, the reactions from opposition parties and state leaders indicate substantial criticism regarding its effectiveness and political motivations. As the budget's implications unfold, it will be crucial to observe its impact on the nation’s economic landscape and the government’s political standing.

Charlie Munger's Timeless Wisdom: A Beacon for Life and Investment Success

In the landscape of investing and life wisdom, Charlie Munger stands as a towering figure. As Warren Buffett's right-hand man and the vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Munger's profound insights into human behavior, decision-making, and value investing form an invaluable guide. This exploration delves into Munger’s century-spanning wisdom, illuminating the path to intelligent living and astute investing.

The Essence of Knowledge

“In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn’t read all the time — none, zero.” –

Charlie Munger

Munger’s emphasis on continuous learning is foundational to his philosophy. He underscores the vital role of reading in gaining a broad understanding and enhancing our decision-making abilities. Munger's life-long dedication to learning sets a sterling example for us all.

Patience in Investing

“The big money is not in the buying and selling… but in the waiting.” –

Charlie Munger

Munger’s view on patience highlights the importance of a long-term perspective in investing. He believes in the power of compounding and the value of waiting for investments to reach their potential. This approach reframes patience as a strategic asset in an investor's toolkit.

Diversity in Thought

“You must know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely — all of them, not just a few. Most people are trained in one model — economics, for example — and try to solve all problems in one way. You know the old saying: To the man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail.” –

Charlie Munger

Munger advocates for a multidisciplinary approach to thinking. By integrating mental models from various fields, we can better understand and make better decisions.

Principles of Investing

“The whole trick in the game is to have a few times when you know something is better than average and invest only where you have that extra knowledge.” –

Charlie Munger

Munger's investment strategy emphasizes deep knowledge over-diversification. Understanding a company's business model, financials, competitive advantage, and management is crucial for informed investing decisions.

Learning from Mistakes

“It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.” –

Charlie Munger

Munger acknowledges that intelligent decision-making and investing are challenging. Learning from mistakes, including our own and those of others, is a crucial component of growth and success.

Wisdom on Risk

“All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there.” –

Charlie Munger

This humorous yet profound quote encapsulates Munger's approach to risk. It emphasizes recognizing and avoiding situations that could lead to significant harm, especially in investing.

The Power of Simplicity

“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of very intelligent.” –

Charlie Munger

Munger suggests that avoiding foolish mistakes can be more advantageous than trying to be overly clever. This philosophy champions the power of simplicity and consistency in decision-making.

Trust and Integrity

“The right culture, the highest and best culture, is a seamless web of deserved trust — not much procedure, just reliable people correctly trusting one another.” –

Charlie Munger

Highlighting the value of integrity and trust, Munger points out that a culture built on these values reduces the need for excessive procedures and promotes a thriving environment.

Emotional Control

“You need to keep raw, irrational emotion under control.” –

Charlie Munger

Munger emphasizes the necessity of emotional discipline, particularly in finance and investing, where decisions driven by fear or greed can lead to unfavorable outcomes.

The Art of Continuous Improvement

“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up.” –

Charlie Munger.

Munger advocates for the pursuit of wisdom through daily learning and self-improvement. This approach underlines the value of steady, incremental progress in life and investing.

Conclusion:
Munger's Lifelong Lessons Charlie Munger's insights, drawn from a century of experience, offer timeless principles spanning life and investing.

His emphasis on continuous learning, the virtue of patience, the need for diverse mental models, deep knowledge-based investing, learning from errors, understanding risk, simplicity, honesty, emotional control, and the pursuit of gradual improvement provides a roadmap for anyone seeking wisdom and success in their personal and professional lives.

How to Use Moving Averages – Moving Average Trading 101

Moving averages are undeniably among the most widely used trading tools. However, while they can be highly effective when used correctly, many traders make critical errors when incorporating moving averages into their trading strategies. In this article, I will guide you on essential considerations when selecting the type and length of the ideal moving average and outline three key methods for leveraging moving averages in your trading decisions.

Step 1: Choosing Between EMA and SMA

As you embark on your trading journey, one of the initial questions you'll encounter is whether to opt for the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) or the Simple/Smoothed Moving Average (SMA). The differences between these two moving averages may seem subtle, but your choice can significantly impact your trading. Here's what you need to consider:

1. The Differences Between EMA and SMA:

The primary distinction between EMA and SMA is the speed at which they respond to price changes. EMA moves more swiftly and alters its direction earlier compared to SMA. EMA places greater emphasis on recent price action. Consequently, when the price changes direction, EMA detects this change sooner, whereas SMA takes more time to adjust when the price reverses.

2. Pros and Cons - EMA vs. SMA:

There is no definitive answer to whether EMA is superior to SMA or vice versa. The pros and cons of EMA are intrinsically linked, and here's what it means:

3. In Conclusion:

Your choice between EMA and SMA ultimately depends on your comfort level and trading style (refer to the next points). EMA yields more and earlier signals, but it also produces more incorrect and premature signals. In contrast, SMA generates fewer and delayed signals, but it's less prone to providing incorrect signals, especially during periods of high market volatility.

In my personal trading approach, I prefer using SMA because it enables me to stay in trades for more extended periods, aligning well with my swing trading style. Your preference should be based on your trading objectives and the level of sensitivity you require in your trading signals.

Step 2: Determining the Best Period Setting

Once you've chosen the moving average, the next question arises is which period setting will provide the best signals. This decision depends on whether you're a swing or day trader and your specific objectives for using moving averages. Let's break it down:

1. The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy:

Moving averages often "work" because they act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Price action respects moving averages primarily because numerous traders rely on them. When working with indicators, the critical point is that you should opt for the most commonly used moving averages to maximize your results. Moving averages are most effective when they have widespread adoption among traders, so aligning with the popular choices is advisable.

2. The Best Moving Average Periods for Day Trading:

A fast-reacting moving average is essential for short-term day traders as it responds swiftly to price changes. Consequently, day traders often find Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) the best choice. When it comes to selecting the period and length, consider the following moving averages:

3. The Best Periods for Swing Trading:

Swing traders operate differently, typically focusing on higher time frames (e.g., 4H, Daily, and beyond) and holding positions for extended periods. For swing traders, selecting a Simple Moving Average (SMA) and utilizing higher period moving averages is essential to filter out noise and prevent premature signals. Here are four moving averages of significance to swing traders:

Step3: How To Apply Moving Averages – 3 Usage Examples

3 Steps to Apply Moving Averages for Trading

Now that you're aware of the differences between moving averages and how to select the right period settings let's explore three ways to use moving averages in trading effectively:

Experienced trader Marty Schwartz emphasized using moving averages to identify the major trend. He described it as a "red light, green light" approach, emphasizing the importance of staying on the right side of a moving average to enhance the probability of success. Schwartz's rule was simple: When trading above the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), you have the green light, signaling a positive market mode and potential buying opportunities. Conversely, trading below the average is a red light, indicating a negative market mode and suggesting potential selling opportunities. This approach can significantly improve your trading by ensuring you trade in the direction of the major trend.

Additionally, swing traders can use moving averages as directional filters, particularly the Golden Cross and Death Cross signals, which typically occur on daily charts. A Golden Cross happens when the 50-period moving average crosses above the 200-period moving average, signaling a bullish trend. Conversely, a Death Cross occurs when the 50-period moving average exceeds the 200-period moving average, indicating a bearish trend. These cross-overs can help traders determine the right market direction.

Moving averages can also be valuable for support, trading resistance, and determining stop placement. Due to their self-fulfilling prophecy nature, popular moving averages often serve as reliable support and resistance levels. In trending markets, these moving averages act as dynamic levels where price frequently bounces.

However, it's important to note that moving averages are less effective in ranging markets. When prices move within a defined range, the moving average is generally situated within the middle of that range and doesn't hold as much significance. As the price starts trending, moving averages regain effectiveness in acting as support and resistance levels.

Bollinger Bands, a technical indicator based on moving averages, consists of an outer band that measures price volatility and an inner 20-period moving average. The price fluctuates around the moving average during ranging markets, but the outer bands remain crucial. When the price touches the outer bands in a range, it often indicates a potential reversal when followed by a rejection.

In trending markets, Bollinger Bands helps traders stay in trades. During strong trends, prices generally move away from their moving average while staying close to the outer band. When prices break the moving average, it can signal a change in direction. However, it's important to remember that a violation of the outer band during a trend often foreshadows a retracement, not necessarily a reversal, until the moving average is breached.

Moving averages are versatile tools with various applications in trading. By understanding the differences between EMA and SMA, recognizing the importance of the self-fulfilling prophecy, and selecting the right period settings, traders can effectively integrate moving averages into their trading strategy.

Bollinger Bands and the End of a Trend
Bollinger Bands and the End of a Trend

How to Trade a Divergence - A Step-by-Step Divergence Trading Guide

Divergences stand out as one of my preferred trading concepts due to their ability to yield dependable and high-quality trading signals when integrated with other trading tools and principles.

While it's true that indicators, like price action, exhibit some lag, this lagging aspect becomes an asset when it comes to divergences. It assists us in pinpointing superior and more dependable trade entry points as we explore further. Divergences can be valuable to traders seeking reversals and those following trends, aiding them in effectively timing their exits.

In my personal trading strategy, divergences play a significant role within one of my setups, particularly when combined with additional signals. It's worth noting that trading divergences in isolation aren't advisable, but they serve as an excellent foundation for your trading endeavors.

What Is A Divergence?

Let's dive right into the most straightforward question and delve into the essence of divergence and what it conveys about price movement. You might be surprised at how often people misunderstand this concept.

A divergence takes shape on your chart when the price is higher while the indicator you rely on registers a lower high. When your chosen indicator and price action do not align, it signals that there's something noteworthy occurring on your charts, which may not be immediately apparent by simply glancing at the price data.

A divergence arises when your indicator doesn't "concur" with the price action. While this is a fundamental concept, we'll venture into more advanced divergence ideas and explore how to trade them effectively. Nevertheless, establishing a strong foundation by understanding this basic concept is paramount.

RSI DIVERGENCE

Bearish and bullish divergences are crucial concepts in trading, emphasizing when the price and the indicator display conflicting signals, ultimately hinting at a potential reversal.

An Rsi Divergence

1. Revisiting the RSI

Divergences are a versatile tool applicable to various indicators, but my top choice is the RSI (Relative Strength Index). The RSI assesses the average gain and average loss within a defined timeframe. For instance, setting your RSI to 14 calculates the relative strength of bullish and bearish movements over the previous 14 candles.

When the RSI value is low, it implies that the past 14 candles witnessed more and more potent bearish movements than bullish ones. Conversely, a high RSI reading suggests that the preceding 14 candles saw more and stronger bullish movements than bearish ones.

The RSI's ability to gauge the balance between bullish and bearish forces within a specified period makes it a valuable tool for traders, and it's particularly effective for identifying divergences that can signal potential trend reversals.

2. When does an RSI divergence form?

Understanding your indicator's high and low points is important in deciphering divergences. I often urge traders to look beyond the zigzag lines on their indicators and grasp the essence of what they truly signify.

During trending market conditions, the RSI can be a precious tool for assessing the strength of those trends by comparing individual trend waves. Here are three key scenarios, each illustrated in the screenshot below:

Recognizing these three scenarios and their implications can empower traders to make more informed decisions when interpreting RSI movements and identifying potential trend reversals.

RSI during Bullish Trends

3. Conventional technical analysis is flawed.

Classic technical analysis conventionally defines a trend as the price forming higher highs. However, as is often the case, conventional wisdom tends to oversimplify things. Relying solely on high and low points for price analysis can cause traders to overlook vital hints and fail to grasp the intricacies of market dynamics.

A closer examination of individual candle patterns and momentum can reveal a different story, even when a trend appears "healthy" on the surface, characterized by higher and lows. A trend can lose momentum simultaneously, which isn't immediately apparent when assessing high and low points.

Identifying a divergence on your momentum indicator signals that the trend dynamics are shifting. While the trend may still appear valid, this divergence indicates that a potential end to the trend might be approaching. It underscores the importance of delving deeper into market dynamics beyond the surface-level analysis of highs and lows.

How To Trade A Divergence – The Optimal Entry

Not every instance of a divergence leads to a significant trend reversal; often, the price enters a period of sideways consolidation after a divergence is observed. It's important to remember that a divergence primarily signals a decrease in momentum but doesn't necessarily indicate a complete shift in the prevailing trend.

To prevent entering trades that go nowhere, it is strongly recommended to incorporate additional criteria and confirmation tools into your trading toolkit. Relying solely on a divergence as your sole indicator may not yield favorable results. Like any other trading strategy, it's crucial to incorporate multiple factors that align with your divergence signals to strengthen your overall trading strategy.

For instance, consider the example below, where the price exhibited two divergences, but a significant price decline did not follow. These divergences merely indicated short-term consolidation in the market.

HOW TO TRADE A DIVERGENCE

Tip: Location

The location holds universal significance in trading, regardless of your chosen trading system. Incorporating the concept of location into your strategy can substantially improve the quality of your signals and overall trade execution. Instead of relying on divergence signals to initiate trades, waiting for the price to reach a previous support or resistance zone is advisable. Then, you can use divergences and trend shifts as timing indicators for your entries.

Consider the screenshot below a valuable example: On the left side, there's an uptrend with two divergences. However, the first failed, while the second resulted in a significant win. What made the difference? When we examine the higher time frame on the right, we can see that the first divergence occurred in a less significant price area, whereas the second one formed at a crucial resistance level (highlighted by the yellow line and arrow). As a trader, your initial step should be identifying your support and resistance zones and patiently waiting for the price to approach them. This approach can have a substantial effect on your trading performance.

RSI DIVERGENCE

Divergences represent a potent trading concept. Traders who grasp how to effectively trade divergences within the appropriate market conditions and with the right signals can establish a strong and efficient approach to analyzing price movements.

Mastering the MACD Indicator: A Comprehensive Guide

The MACD indicator stands as a widely recognized tool for gauging momentum and tracking trends in trading. It derives its insights from moving averages, making it valuable for enhancing momentum analysis and refining your trading strategies.

In this article, we will delve into the functionalities of the MACD indicator, explaining how it aids in price analysis and offering guidance on its practical implementation in your trading endeavors.

Let's begin by dissecting the key components of the MACD indicator:

This article's main target will be the MACD and the Signal line. The histogram is a derivative of these two MACD components and, consequently, doesn't contribute significantly to the overall explanatory power of MACD trading.

Mastering the MACD Indicator

Understanding the Fundamentals of the MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence, short of MACD, hinges its foundation on moving averages. This characteristic makes it an excellent tool for scrutinizing momentum, identifying entry points that align with prevailing trends, and staying invested until momentum wanes.

In this article, we'll delve into two key MACD signals, offering a step-by-step guide on how to leverage the MACD to identify trading opportunities:

1. MACD Line Crossing at 0

In the chart below, you'll notice the MACD line and the Signal line displayed at the bottom. Additionally, we've plotted the 12 and 26 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the chart, providing valuable insights into the MACD's mechanics:

The essence of the MACD becomes evident in this visual representation. When the two EMAs intersect on the price chart, the MACD line also crosses below the 0 level, as indicated by the "x" and vertical line.

This observation reveals that the MACD operates like a conventional moving average crossover system.

MACD Line Crossing at 0

As discussed in our moving averages article, crossing two moving averages signifies a shift in momentum and often serves as an early indicator of a potential new trend.

When the MACD Line crosses 0, it signifies a shift in momentum, hinting at the possible initiation of a fresh trend.

2. Understanding the Space Between MACD Lines

The gap or separation between the two MACD indicator lines holds significant insights into market momentum and trend strength.

Moreover, we can utilize the 0-line as a critical reference point for trend analysis:

By assessing the space between the MACD lines and their relation to the 0-line, traders can gain valuable insights into market conditions, enabling informed decision-making in their trading strategies.

Space Between MACD Lines

Mastering the Trend-Following Strategy with MACD

In trading, periods of range-bound movement can be challenging to navigate. During these times, the two MACD indicator lines typically exhibit proximity and hover around the crucial 0-line, indicating a lack of momentum and market strength.

To grasp the dynamics, let's explore a chart study below that illustrates how MACD aids us in discerning various market phases:

Following the divergence signal, the price executed a sharp reversal to the downside, causing the MACD to dip below the 0-line for the first time. This marked a new downtrending period, with the MACD consistently residing below 0.

Strategy with MACD

Leveraging MACD Divergences for Early Entry in Trading

MACD divergences are a powerful tool for scrutinizing price movements and identifying early opportunities to follow emerging trends.

In the screenshot below, we witnessed a robust initial uptrend in the market, resulting in a rapid ascent of the MACD.

However, market dynamics can shift, and in this case, we observed the momentum slowing down as the price made sluggish upward progress. Concurrently, the MACD began to trend lower, serving as a clear signal of the evolving change in momentum.

The crucial turning point occurred when the price broke below the two moving averages, accompanied by a strong selling period. Coinciding with this price action, the MACD also dipped below the 0-line. This synchronized movement often acts as a precursor to more bearish trends in the market.

MACD divergences

Indicators can significantly enhance your trading strategy by offering objective and easily interpretable information. The MACD is a valuable ally for trend traders, effectively analyzing trends and momentum.

Another noteworthy indicator in this category is the STOCHASTIC Indicator, which provides further insights into trading dynamics. You can explore more about how the STOCHASTIC Indicator can enhance your trading in our dedicated article: [STOCHASTIC Indicator](link to STOCHASTIC indicator article).

6 Secret Tips for Supply and Demand Trading

"Whether we're analyzing significant price shifts, ongoing trends, or key support and resistance zones, the fundamental idea of supply and demand trading is always at the heart of it. Familiarizing yourself with our six essential supply and demand forex trading tips can be highly beneficial.

In a robust uptrend, it's clear that buyers outnumber sellers – this is a fundamental truth. As the trend progresses, prices rise until enough sellers join the market to absorb the buy orders. This initiation of a strong bullish trend is called an accumulation or a demand zone.

Conversely, bearish trends emerge when sellers surpass buy orders. In this scenario, prices decline until a new equilibrium is established, rekindling buyers' interest. The beginning of a bearish trend wave is often referred to as a distribution or a supply zone.

Supply and demand are the driving forces behind all price fluctuations, whether in your local flea market or on the global stage of capital markets. When there's a high demand for a limited quantity of a specific item, its price will naturally rise until it matches the level of interest and available supply.

Conversely, if there's minimal interest in a particular item, sellers must adjust the price downward until a buyer's interest is piqued, or a transaction may not occur."

The 6 Hints For Supply And Demand Trading

SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRADING

"Wyckoff's 'distribution and accumulation' theory provides insights into trends. Before the commencement of a trend, the price remains within an 'accumulation' zone, during which the 'big players' gradually amass their positions before propelling the price upward.

They cannot simply flood the market with their entire orders because doing so would trigger an immediate price surge, preventing them from filling their positions fully and potentially diminishing their profits.

It is reasonable to assume that after the price exits an accumulation zone, not all buyers have executed their orders, and open interest still exists at that level. Supply and demand forex traders can apply this understanding to pinpoint areas with a high likelihood of significant price reactions."

1. Moderate Volatility:

A supply zone usually exhibits limited price movement. Excessive candle wicks and frequent reversals can nullify the effectiveness of a supply zone for future trading. The narrower the supply/demand zone before a strong breakout, the higher the probability of a favorable reaction next time.

2. Timely Exit:

Prolonged periods of price residing within a supply zone are not ideal. While it takes some time for positions to accumulate, extended ranges typically do not signify institutional buying. Effective supply zones are relatively narrow and don't persist for too long.

A shorter accumulation zone is better suited for identifying re-entry points during pullbacks to capture open interest.

Timely Exit

3. The "Spring":

Coined by Wyckoff, the "Spring" pattern refers to a price movement in the reverse direction of the subsequent breakout. In hindsight, the spring often resembles a false breakout, but it traps traders by inducing trades in the wrong direction (read more: Bull and bear traps). Institutional traders utilize the spring to accumulate buy orders and then increase prices.

The "Spring"

4. Strong Force Leaving the Zone:

This point holds significant importance. At some point, the price exits the supply zone and begins to trend. A notable imbalance between buyers and sellers results in forceful and rapid price movements.

Remember, the stronger the breakout, the more robust the demand zone tends to be, often with retained open interest, especially when the time spent in the accumulation phase was relatively short. Look for exceptionally strong turning points, as they often represent high-probability price levels.

5. Freshness:

When trading supply areas, ensure the zone remains "fresh." This means that the price has not been revisited after the initial establishment of the zone. Each time the price returns to a supply zone, more unfilled orders from the past are executed, weakening the level progressively. This principle applies to support and resistance trading, where levels lose strength with each subsequent bounce.

6. Amateur Squeeze:

The Rally-Range-Drop scenario characterizes a market top (or swing high) followed by a sell-off. The market top marks a level where the selling interest becomes so pronounced that it absorbs all buying interest, pushing the price lower. The amateur squeeze allows patient and savvy traders to exploit the behavior of consistently losing traders who misunderstand the market.

It's reasonable to assume that clusters of orders still exist above a strong market top and below a market bottom. Traders who specialize in fake breakouts are well aware of this phenomenon.

Amateur Squeeze

How To Use The Concept Of Supply And Demand?

"Many trading concepts may sound promising in theory, but their true value becomes evident when you can effectively apply them. The idea of supply, demand, and open interest can be employed in three distinct ways:

1. Reversal Trading:

At Tradeciety, our specialization lies in reversal trading, which is also the most beneficial use of supply and demand zones. After identifying a robust previous market turnaround, patiently wait for the price to revisit that area.

When a false breakout occurs, the likelihood of a successful reversal is notably high. To enhance the probability of successful trades, consider combining fake breakouts with momentum divergence and a feigned spike through the Bollinger Bands.

Reversal Trading

2. Support and Resistance:

Supply and demand zones naturally serve as support and resistance levels. It proves advantageous to have these zones on your charts for several reasons. Traders can better understand price movements by blending traditional support and resistance principles with supply and demand.

Supply and demand zones are frequently below or above support and resistance levels. While support and resistance traders may find themselves caught in a difficult position, supply and demand traders possess a better perspective.

Support and Resistance

3. Stop Loss and Take Profit:

Supply and demand zones can also be invaluable tools for positioning your profits and managing risk. Always position your profit target just before a supply or demand zone to prevent the risk of relinquishing all your profits once the open interest in that zone is fulfilled. As for stop losses, placing your orders outside these zones is advisable to avoid being prematurely triggered by stop runs and squeezes."

Mastering Fibonacci and Fibonacci Extensions

Traders highly favor the Mastering Fibonacci tool, and it's not hard to see why. Fibonacci is a widely accepted trading concept that can be used in various markets and timeframes. Numerous Fibonacci tools are available, including spirals, retracements, Fibonacci time zones, Fibonacci speed resistance, and extensions.

In this article, I will guide you on the correct method for drawing a Fibonacci sequence and demonstrate how to utilize Fibonacci extensions in your trading endeavors effectively.

How To Draw Fibonaccis – Do It

Often, traders new to Fibonacci analysis may feel uncertain about whether they're "getting it right," which can lead to them avoiding the Fibonacci tool altogether. Let me assure you, there's no strict right or wrong method for drawing Fibonacci retracement levels. Furthermore, you'll notice that various traders have unique approaches to using Fibonacci.

The beauty of Fibonacci levels lies in their percentage-based nature. This means that even if you draw them somewhat differently, they often align correctly with the price action. So, don't hesitate to try it – using Fibonacci is about integrating it into your trading strategy rather than adhering to rigid rules.

Step 1 –  Find An 'a To B' Move

Before utilizing Fibonacci retracements, it's essential to pinpoint an 'A to B' move where you can effectively apply the Fibonacci retracement tool. But what exactly do we mean by 'A to B'?

A represents the starting point of a new price or trend movement. These are typically swing highs and lows, or in simpler terms, the tops and bottoms in the price action.

B signifies the point where the trend movement takes a breather and starts to reverse, initiating a retracement. This retracement often occurs after a significant move in price.

The Following 4 Screenshots Show Typical A To B Moves

TYPICAL A TO B MOVES
TYPICAL A TO B MOVES
TYPICAL A TO B MOVES
TYPICAL A TO B MOVES

Now, let's put the Fibonacci retracement tool into action with the A to B moves. To do this, you can easily follow these steps on our platform:

Release the tool at point 'B.'

This simple process will help you accurately apply the Fibonacci retracement tool to your price chart.

Connecting A To B Moves With The Fibonacci Retracement Tool

CONNECTING A TO B MOVES
CONNECTING A TO B MOVES
CONNECTING A TO B MOVES
CONNECTING A TO B MOVES

Step 2 – Find The Retracement Point C

Once you've successfully identified the A to B move and applied the Fibonacci tool to your charts, your next step is to locate point C.

C represents the pivotal point where the retracement concludes, and the price reverses back in the original direction of the trend.

As illustrated in the first three screenshots, you can observe the typical ABC pattern of a Fibonacci retracement. Point C is evident on all three charts, and you'll notice that the price reacts precisely as expected, bouncing off the Fibonacci levels with accuracy.

 Finding The C-fibonacci Retracement Level

 FINDING THE C-FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVEL
 FINDING THE C-FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVEL
 FINDING THE C-FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVEL
 FINDING THE C-FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVEL

In the fourth screenshot, we encounter a scenario where the price doesn't reverse at the B-Fibonacci level but instead breaks through the previous A-Fibonacci level. It's crucial to recognize that not every price movement will halt precisely at a Fibonacci level. However, as demonstrated in the fourth screenshot, the Fibonacci tool remains valuable for pinpointing support and resistance zones, as we'll delve into more depth shortly.

The final screenshot clearly illustrates how the price responds to various Fibonacci levels during the retracement phase, highlighting the tool's effectiveness in identifying key price levels.

How to Use the Reward Risk Ratio Like a Professional

What Is The Reward Risk Ratio

The reward-to-risk ratio (RRR) is a key metric in a trader's toolkit, playing a pivotal role in assessing the potential gains versus losses in a trade. In essence, this ratio serves as a quantifiable measure of the anticipated returns relative to the level of risk involved.

It's computed by dividing the potential profit by the potential loss, and a high reward-to-risk ratio signals a more promising trade prospect, while a low ratio points to the contrary. However, the significance of the reward-to-risk ratio extends far beyond these basics, as we'll delve into in this article.

Calculating The Reward-to-risk Ratio

Calculating the reward-to-risk ratio is a straightforward process. Let's assume a trader is assessing a potential short trade opportunity with the current entry price at 15387.8, a Stop Loss at 15565.8, and a Take profit price at 14854.6, as shown in the screenshot below (NASDAQ_2023-08-30_17-50-46).

First, you determine the risk, which is the difference between Stop Loss and entry price :

Stop Loss – Entry price = 15565.8 – 15387.8 = 178.0

CALCULATING THE REWARD

Then, you calculate the potential reward for the trade, which is the difference between entry price and Take Profit:

Entry price – Take profit = 15387.8 – 14854.6 = 533.2.

To find the reward-to-risk ratio, divide the reward by the risk, as calculated in the previous steps:

Reward to risk ratio = Reward / Risk = 533.2 / 178.0 = 2.99 = 3.

Often, traders express the reward-to-risk ratio as "3:1," indicating that the trade offers three times the potential reward compared to the associated risk. The same logic applies when calculating the ratio for a long (buy) trade. If you're using Tradingview, their Long/Short Position tool can automate the process, eliminating the need for manual calculations.

What Does The Reward-to-risk Ratio Tell You

In an ideal scenario, a trader assesses the reward-to-risk ratio before entering a trade, primarily for two essential purposes: to gauge the trade's potential profitability and to ensure that the potential reward justifies the risk involved. Let's delve into these two aspects to gain a better understanding.

Reward-to-risk Ratio And Trade Profitability

Expanding upon our previous trade example with a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio, it becomes evident that by consistently taking the same trade with identical premises, traders can sustain three losing trades and still break even if they win just one out of every four trades:

This example underscores the significance of opting for trades with a sufficiently large reward-to-risk ratio. It emphasizes that traders need not aim to win all, or even the majority, of their trades to achieve long-term profitability. If a trader can win just two out of every four trades, each with the same 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio, they will ultimately realize a profit.

This approach highlights the importance of risk management and the principle that even with a moderate success rate, well-considered trades can still lead to profitable outcomes over time.

Reward-potential Of Trades

Before entering a trade, it is essential for a trader to carefully analyze the chart's current situation and determine whether the trade offers sufficient reward potential. For instance, if the price must overcome significant support or resistance levels en route to the take-profit level, the trade's potential for substantial rewards may be restricted.

Ideally, traders seek opportunities where the price doesn't need to navigate major support and resistance barriers to attain the target level. The more obstacles—support and resistance levels or price "obstacles"—in the path from the entry point to the intended target, the higher the likelihood that the price will encounter hurdles along the way and potentially fail to reach the final target.

The goal is to identify trades where the path to the target is relatively clear of significant impediments, increasing the likelihood of a successful trade. It underscores the importance of considering the reward-to-risk ratio, the practicality of achieving the intended rewards given the chart's dynamics, and the potential obstacles the price may encounter along its journey.

The Reward-to-risk Ratio And Your Win Rate

I have already mentioned a connection between the reward-to-risk ratio and the trading system rate. With a 3:1 reward-to-risk proportion, a trader can lose 3/4 of trades and still end up with a break-even result and not lose money. This means that for a 3:1 reward-to-risk proportion, the minimum required rate to reach a break-even point is 25%. We get the 25% win rate by dividing one by 4 (one winner for every four trades).

The higher the reward-to-risk proportion, the lower the required rate to break even. The table below shows the required rate for different reward-to-risk ratio sizes to reach the break-even point.

REWARD-TO-RISK RATIO AND YOUR WIN RATE

The Optimal Reward-to-Risk Ratio

Many traders naturally assume that striving for a high reward-to-risk ratio should make it easier to profit, as it lessens the demand for a high win rate. While this holds in theory, there are some critical considerations to remember.

Achieving a high reward-to-risk ratio involves a trade-off. A trader can either position their target levels significantly far from the entry point to boost the trade's potential reward or opt for stop-loss orders set very close to the entry to minimize the risk component. Both methods enhance the reward-to-risk ratio. However, it's essential to understand why "bigger" isn't always "better" regarding this ratio.

As illustrated in the screenshot below, doubling the take-profit distance doubles the reward-to-risk ratio to 6:1. However, upon closer examination, it becomes clear that this extends the time required for the trade and raises the risk of not reaching the target.

Wide Trade Targets

In the screenshot below, halving the stop loss distance also doubles the reward-to-risk ratio to 6:1. However, despite the significantly higher reward-to-risk ratio, the price is more likely to reach the stop loss and end the trade.

Closer Stop Loss

Understanding this common relationship between stop loss and take profit distances is pivotal for traders. It allows them to make more informed decisions, refining their risk management strategies. Many aspiring traders may not realize how adjusting their stop loss or taking profit orders can significantly impact their trading performance and profoundly alter the dynamics of their trades. Discovering the balance between risk and reward is essential for successful trading.

The Optimal Reward-to-Risk Ratio

The ideal reward-to-risk ratio is a common question, but unfortunately, no universal answer fits all trading situations.

Many new traders are naturally drawn to a trend-following approach, which requires a substantial reward-to-risk ratio. However, as we've discussed, higher reward-to-risk ratios tend to correspond with lower win rates. Additionally, the time spent in a trade usually increases with a larger ratio. Both factors can pose challenges for inexperienced traders, making it more difficult for them to execute successful trades.

This explains why numerous new traders encounter difficulties in their trading performance. Remaining in profitable trades for an extended duration can be demanding, and as a result, many traders prematurely exit their winning positions. This practice reduces their profit potential and causes them to miss substantial gains.

For starting, opting for a lower reward-to-risk ratio is advisable. This choice generally results in a higher win rate and enables traders to build their confidence more rapidly, thanks to the increased frequency of successful trades. By starting with a lower ratio, traders can develop their skills, gain experience, and gradually work their way up to higher reward-to-risk ratios as they become more proficient in handling trades.

Professional Traders About Reward: Risk Ratio

The significance of the reward-to-risk ratio and effective risk management is a recurring theme in trading literature and conversations with accomplished traders. Here are notable quotes from some of the best traders, offering insights into their perspectives on the reward-to-risk ratio:

These quotes collectively emphasize the pivotal role of the reward-to-risk ratio and effective risk management in a trader's journey to success. They underscore the importance of being right in your trades, gently managing risk, and ensuring that potential rewards significantly outweigh the risks. Accomplished traders understand that maintaining this equilibrium is fundamental to achieving consistent market profitability.

8 Steps to Become a Profitable Trader

What does it take to achieve success as a trader? With eight years of experience mentoring traders, we've witnessed a multitude of traders entering and exiting the market. However, we've also identified common traits among those who make substantial progress.

That's why we've compiled a comprehensive guide outlining the eight steps traders must follow to enhance their trading skills and, ideally, begin generating profits.

1. Find Your Market

The initial step on your journey is selecting the market(s) you wish to trade. Are you inclined towards trading currencies (Forex), stocks, or Futures? Each market has advantages and disadvantages; no single market is definitively superior to the others.

Ultimately, the decision burns down to personal preferences. However, traders must also consider how their chosen market aligns with their lifestyle.

For instance, if you hold a demanding day job that doesn't allow for constant monitoring of charts and trades during the day, day trading in your local stock market may not be feasible due to its limited operating hours, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. On the other hand, Forex and Futures markets operate nearly round-the-clock (with exceptions) and offer greater flexibility.

A trader might opt to trade international currencies or commodity Futures in the evening after work. Alternatively, one can adopt a more long-term trading approach (such as swing trading), reducing the need for constant chart surveillance and making daily trade checks sufficient.

2. Finding A Trading Strategy

Now, let's talk about crafting a trading strategy. A quick Google search will arrange thousands of results for trading strategies. But how do you find the right one, and what should you consider when selecting your trading strategy?

During your initial 9 to 18 months in the trading arena, exploring various strategy types is essential to understand different approaches to timing, managing, and exiting trades. Try a new trading strategy every 3 to 4 months.

This timeframe allows you ample opportunity to grasp the nuances of each strategy. After experimenting with 3 to 6 different trading strategies, you should have a solid sense of which aligns best with your preferences. In this phase, it's not solely about seeking the strategy that promises the highest profits but rather about discerning your trader identity and identifying the analytical and trading approach that resonates with you and your thought process.

When evaluating trading strategies, ensure they encompass all the essential components:

A common pitfall among new traders is fixating solely on the timing of trades and entry selection within a trading strategy while neglecting the remaining components. Consequently, when actively trading, they lack guidelines for managing their trades and responding to price fluctuations. This often leads to losses, with traders attributing their failures to erroneous entry rules, unaware that other crucial aspects of a trading strategy play an equally pivotal role.

If you're uncertain where to begin, glance at our Tradecademy, where I offer ready-to-use, comprehensive trading strategies that are ideal for helping you discover what suits you best.

3. Don't Ride The Learning Curve

There comes a pivotal moment when you must settle on a trading strategy and cease the experimentation phase. It's vital to grasp that finding a trading strategy that immediately turns a profit is rare. Instead, it's a process of refining and adapting a trading strategy to your specific instruments. Moreover, you need to evolve into the kind of trader who can execute the strategy effectively, remaining unemotional and adhering to your plans.

In the initial stages, executing your trades optimally can be challenging even if you possess a well-structured trading strategy with sound rules. This is entirely normal! The journey to becoming a trader is a gradual process.

During this phase, you may be tempted to abandon your trading strategy when faced with a few initial losses. It's crucial to resist this impulse because, in nearly 99% of cases, it's not the trading strategy that requires modification; you need to adapt and grow. While this notion may seem unusual, the next point will delve deeper into this concept.

Having worked with thousands of traders over the years, we've repeatedly witnessed a common struggle: many traders find it challenging to accept that even a winning trading system can and will experience periodic losses.

When traders cannot accept that a system can incur losses despite being profitable in the long run, they are more inclined to jump to a new strategy to find one that appears invulnerable to losses. The sooner a trader embraces the understanding that no "perfect" trading system is immune to losses, the better it is for their overall progress.

4. Learn From Your Mistakes

Regularly reviewing your trades serves two critical purposes.

Firstly, most traders realize that the losses they incur are often self-inflicted. This implies that many trading losses result from deviating from established trading rules. While it's true that occasionally, even a perfectly executed trade may not go as planned, especially in the early stages, it's more likely that a substantial part of your losses is due to rule violations.

This is encouraging news because it suggests that instead of abandoning your trading strategy, the focus should shift towards self-improvement. This involves developing better coping mechanisms and enhancing discipline. Review your recent trades, examine where you went wrong, and contemplate how you could have improved your decision-making.

Furthermore, regular trade reviews can also uncover issues within your trading strategy. I recently spoke with a trader I mentor, and he mentioned that although most of his trades eventually moved in the anticipated direction, approximately 90% of the time, the price hit the stop loss before reversing.

In such cases, the trader's stop loss is set too close to the price, and by allowing trades a bit more room to develop, he might transform some of those losses into wins. These insights are invaluable and can only be gleaned through a thorough trade review.

Regrettably, many traders neglect regularly reviewing their trades, thus missing out on opportunities for self-improvement and strategy optimization. Thankfully, numerous excellent tools are available to traders, including our Edgewonk.com trading journal, designed to streamline and simplify the review process.

5. Backtesting - Speed Up Your Learning Process

In addition to maintaining a trading journal, backtesting is another invaluable tool for traders to accelerate their learning curve. During a backtest, traders delve into historical price data, applying their trading rules to identify potential trading opportunities.

The objective is to assess how a trading strategy and specific trading rules would have fared in the past. Backtesting provides traders with critical insights, including historical win rates, the average number of trading signals generated by the strategy, and the optimal reward-to-risk ratio.

Moreover, backtesting enhances a trader's pattern recognition abilities. Many traders rely on technical analysis, price action, or patterns in their trading strategies, and initially, their pattern recognition skills may be limited.

However, traders expose themselves to various chart scenarios by immersing themselves in extensive historical data and executing numerous backtest trades. This exposure makes traders more adept at identifying promising trading opportunities in real-time.

The key takeaway here is that more backtesting generally leads to better outcomes. I recommend dedicating as much time as possible to backtesting. When you have a spare moment, consider scheduling a 30-minute backtesting session to maximize your learning and skill development.

6. When To Go Live

The transition to live trading, which involves trading with real money, is a significant step in a trader's journey. During the initial months, traders often practice with a demo trading account, using fictional funds with real-time market data. The question of when to leap to live trading is common, but there's no one-size-fits-all answer.

Before you consider transitioning to live trading, you must have a solid understanding of your trading strategy. You should have thoroughly backtested historical data to validate that your trading rules would have been profitable. However, it's essential to recognize that past performance does not guarantee future success.

Recently, funding companies have emerged, offering traders the opportunity to trade with real capital provided by the company. This can be a viable option. The advantage of participating in a funded challenge is that you're not risking your own money while adhering to strict risk management rules established by the funding company.

Learning to trade within these risk limitations can be an excellent training process for new traders, as it enforces conservative risk management measures. This will tie into the next point on our list.

7. Expectation Management And Risk

When traders embark on their trading journey, many believe that trading is a quick path to substantial wealth. However, reality often sets in swiftly, revealing that making a significant amount of money quickly is not as easy as it may seem.

Despite this realization, some traders struggle to let go of this dream and continue to take excessive risks in the hope of making a fortune. Unfortunately, pursuing high returns through elevated risk frequently leads to margin calls and substantial financial losses.

To navigate these initial stages successfully, focusing on risk management, particularly position sizing, is crucial. Traditionally, trading literature and established traders advocate the 1% position size rule. You should not risk more than 1% of your trading capital on any trade. This guideline is an excellent starting point as it minimizes the likelihood of substantial losses that can trigger emotional trading, ultimately resulting in even more significant losses.

One common challenge traders face is that their initial trading accounts are often small. As a result, risking 1% per trade may seem insignificant, and traders may struggle to take their trading seriously.

Engaging in a funding challenge can offer a solution, as funding companies typically impose strict risk management rules that necessitate adherence to sound position sizing principles. Instead of self-funding a small trading account with, for instance, $300 or $500, participating in a funding challenge, often costing around $100, can be an attractive alternative for many traders. These challenges instill a higher level of accountability, helping traders to maintain consistency and avoid excessive risk-taking.

8. Growing Your Trading Account

Trading is a game that demands patience on multiple fronts. Traders must exercise patience while waiting for their trading opportunities to materialize. Patience is also required to hold onto profitable trades to maximize gains. Additionally, traders need to exercise patience to grow their trading accounts.

Once you've settled on a trading strategy, conducted thorough backtesting to confirm its historical profitability, started journaling your trades to learn from mistakes, and implemented prudent risk management, the real work begins.

Trading is a long-term endeavor, and the age-old adage, "Rome wasn't built in a day," was implemented perfectly. Particularly in the early stages, when you're not a full-time trader and still maintain a regular day job, you enjoy several advantages.

Firstly, there's little to no pressure to generate income from your trading. Your day job covers your living expenses, allowing you to trade without the burden of immediate financial expectations. You can incrementally grow your trading account by making regular deposits into your brokerage account. However, it's crucial to undertake this approach only after demonstrating that you can consistently sustainably generate profits over an extended period spanning multiple months.

Recognize that accumulating capital is a long-term endeavor, and with a sound position sizing strategy, it will take time to grow your trading account. Many traders falter at this juncture because they seek rapid gains.

Yet, it's essential to understand that there's no need to rush, and you can't compel the market to align with your artificially accelerated growth targets. Even if it takes five years or more, the outcome will be well worth the journey, as shortcuts seldom lead to sustainable success in trading.

Scientists Discovered Why Most Traders Lose Money – 24 Surprising Statistics

The statement "95% of all traders fail" is a commonly cited statistic in the trading world, but it lacks empirical support from research. Investigations into broker data and trader performance have revealed some startling statistics suggesting the failure rate may be even higher. This article will present 24 eye-opening statistics discovered by economic scientists, shedding light on why most traders struggle to make a profit.

SURPRISING STATISTICS

The trading world is filled with surprising statistics that reveal why many traders struggle to succeed:

Conclusion:

After reviewing these 24 statistics, it becomes clear why many traders fail. Trading decisions are often based on emotions, the desire for excitement, and the hope of striking it rich quickly. What traders frequently overlook is that trading is a profession that demands skills honed over years.

Therefore, it's crucial to approach your trading decisions with mindfulness and a realistic perspective. Don't expect to become a millionaire within a year, but instead, understand the potential and possibilities that online trading offers. Success in trading requires discipline, a well-thought-out strategy, and the dedication to develop your skills.